Despite volatile returns, the narrative has not changed; inflation, interest rates, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) remain the market’s top concerns. Markets are hoping for some indication that the Fed will commence cutting interest rates. Still, each inflation and most labor market updates push the timeline further into 2024. If expectations from the start of […]
Key Takeaways from 1Q 2024 New record highs were a theme during the first quarter, from the S&P 500 Index to gold and even bitcoin. The S&P 500 Index ended the first three months of the year up 10.6% and finished at an all-time high twenty-two times during the quarter, or about one-third of all […]
Key Takeaways from 4Q 2023 After an ugly third quarter and even start to the fourth quarter, markets regained their footing in November and finished the year strongly in positive territory. Consistent with how markets have traded the past 18 months, the pivot coincided with the Federal Reserve’s meeting on November 1. Following that meeting, […]
Key Takeaways from 3Q 2023 Financial markets had a challenging third quarter driven by the big three: inflation, Treasury yields, and oil. As the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated, interest rates would stay higher for longer, resulting in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond climbing to a 16-year high of 4.62%, and the S&P 500 Index trading […]
The summer stock market rally came to a halt in August. As volatility increased, the S&P 500 Index ended the month 1.6% lower than it began. The only S&P 500 sector ending the month higher was energy, while utilities brought up the rear with a 6.2% decline. I would describe last month’s downturn as broad-based […]
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it […]
Inflation Inflation continues to fall steadily from the 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022 to a more modest 4.0% in May 2023. E Energy prices, driven by the Russia-Ukraine war, which were the most significant contributor to inflation last summer, are now the largest contributor to disinflation. Core goods, including food prices, are improving […]
The most telegraphed recession in history must wait a little longer before coming to fruition. Economic data through the first half of the year remained mixed, with the labor market and service industries remaining strong. However, manufacturing is experiencing some weakness paired with still sticky inflation. Despite the mixed messages, stocks did not waiver much, […]